REFERENCIA ID 06BUENOSAIRES1462
ASUNTO ARGENTINA: THE K-STYLE OF POLITICS
CREADO 2006-06-29
LANZADO 2010-11-30
CLASIFICACION Confidencial
VZCZCXRO4935
PP RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHQU RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHBU #1462/01 1801546
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 291546Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5073
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY
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RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNMRC/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BUENOS AIRES 001462
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: THE K-STYLE OF POLITICS
REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 01090
¶B. BUENOS AIRES 01403
¶C. BUENOS AIRES 02974
¶D. 05 BUENOS AIRES 00141
¶E. 05 BUENOS AIRES 02835
¶F. 05 BUENOS AIRES 00115
Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
------------------------
SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION
------------------------
¶1. (C) This cable is designed to examine President Nestor
Kirchner's unique operating and decision-making style that
has become known as the "K-Style." Given Kirchner's control
over all aspects of GOA policymaking, knowledge of Kirchner's
motivations and methods in arriving at decisions is essential
to understanding GOA actions.
¶2. (C) President Nestor Kirchner's personalistic, often
erratic operating and decision-making style defines current
Argentine policymaking and is characterized by an overarching
focus on the short-term and politically expedient
accumulation and maintenance of domestic political power.
Kirchner's domestic political style leaves no room for
dissent and utilizes divide-and-conquer tactics to weaken the
political opposition. While utilizing leftist, populist
rhetoric at times, in practice Kirchner has demonstrated that
his ideological leanings are always less important than the
practicalities of domestic politics. Studies show that
Kirchner's psychological profile includes a need to always be
in control, quick and decisive decision making, a constant
struggle against perceived enemies, and a tendency to respond
to challenges by lashing out, rather than negotiation.
Foreign policy in the Kirchner government is always
subservient to domestic political considerations. President
Kirchner is not skilled at international diplomacy and often
ignores basic protocol. Kirchner relies on an ever-shrinking
group of long-time advisors to make key decisions, many of
whom lack international, business and economic expertise.
END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION.
--------------------------------
THE K-STYLE IN DOMESTIC POLITICS
--------------------------------
¶3. (C) President Nestor Kirchner's personalistic, often
erratic operating and decision-making style defines current
Argentine policymaking and is characterized by an overarching
focus on the short-term and politically expedient
accumulation and maintenance of domestic political power.
Close Kirchner insiders have described Kirchner's
decision-making process to Emboffs as one in which Kirchner
consults with a small number of trusted advisors, generally
one-on-one, and then makes all of the final decisions
himself. The Argentine political system places a great deal
of authority into the hands of the President, and President
Kirchner is a strong president even in the Argentine
historical context. As a result, the "K-Style" defines the
GOA policymaking process and gives the policy process a
short-term focus. As Legal and Technical Secretary Carlos
Zannini, a close Kirchner advisor, told the DCM, "The
President and I get up every morning, look at the morning
papers, and try to figure out how to survive the day."
Another long-time Kirchner associate, former Santa Cruz
Governor Sergio Acevedo told us that Kirchner focuses very
much on day-to-day issues, but always with the long-term
strategic goal of retaining political power. (COMMENT:
Kirchner's focus on retaining political power leads us to
discount speculation that Kirchner will step aside in 2007
and make his wife Cristina the presidential candidate. For
2011, assuming Kirchner's health holds, we would expect him
to either modify the Constitution to allow him to run for a
third term, or to pass the mantel on to his wife. END
COMMENT.)
¶4. (C) Kirchner's domestic political style leaves no room
for dissent and utilizes divide-and-conquer tactics to weaken
BUENOS AIR 00001462 002 OF 005
the political opposition. Kirchner is quick to silence any
opposition to his policies from within his movement, as when
he recently expelled congresswoman Maria del Carmen Alarcon
from the presidency of the Lower House Agricultural Committee
and from Kirchner's Victory Front (FPV) after Alarcon
criticized the GOA beef policy (See Reftel A). Kirchner has
also proven adept at co-opting members of the opposition and
exploiting divisions within opposition parties. Through the
skillful use of his fiscal powers, Kirchner has been able to
draw in the majority of the Radical Civic Union (UCR)
governors, and many UCR mayors (See Septel on deteriorating
provincial finances and Kirchner's use of fiscal power for
political aims). He has also been able to co-opt the
political leadership from the now defunct center-left Frepaso
and most of the Peronists formerly aligned in opposition to
Kirchner with former President Eduardo Duhalde. Kirchner has
exploited divisions within the UCR by heavily courting
Mendoza Governor Julio Cobos, long-time rival of UCR
President Roberto Iglesias, even encouraging rumors that
Cobos may be Kirchner's running mate in 2007. Kirchner also
does not accept criticism from those outside of the political
arena, attacking the press, the Catholic Church and business
leaders that have been publicly critical of the GOA.
¶5. (C) While utilizing leftist, populist rhetoric at times,
in practice Kirchner has demonstrated that his ideological
leanings are always less important than the practicalities of
domestic politics. As Acevedo recently told us, President
Kirchner has no true ideology. For example, the issue of
human rights and his political affiliations in the 1970s were
non-issues in the 20 years of Kirchner's political life as
Mayor of Rio Gallegos and Governor of Santa Cruz province.
Acevedo said Kirchner's recent support for the Mothers of the
Plaza de Mayo and a renewed focus on human rights crimes
committed under the last dictatorship was driven by his need
to develop a core base of support within the left wing of the
Peronist movement. Kirchner was also a big proponent of the
1990s privatizations at the time they occurred, but has since
vehemently attacked them. This does not mean that Kirchner
does not have left-wing sympathies, but rather that these are
completely subordinate to his personal political interests
and ambition (See Reftel B). Kirchner's left-wing sympathies
have not stopped him from forming alliances of convenience
with center-right Peronist leaders, such as Luis Barrionuevo
of Catamarca, Cordoba Governor Jose Manuel de la Sota, or the
largely conservative Peronist political machine in Buenos
Aires province.
¶6. (C) Kirchner's style of policymaking has become more
pronounced after the October 2005 elections and November 2005
cabinet changes left Kirchner firmly in charge of all aspects
of GOA decision making (See Reftel C). Prior to the October
elections, Kirchner had to consider former President
Duhalde's opinion in making major decisions. Kirchner's
resounding victory in Buenos Aires province in the elections
left him in control of the Peronist Party (PJ) and banished
Duhalde from the center stage of the political scene. Before
Kirchner's November cabinet changes, Kirchner also had to
contend with his independent-minded Minister of the Economy,
Roberto Lavagna, in making economic policy decisions, and
with then-Foreign Minister Rafael Bielsa, who occasionally
exhibited an independent streak. Their replacements, Felisa
Miceli and Jorge Taiana are loyal soldiers who follow
presidential orders. For example, recently Miceli was give a
copy of a communique that had been issued to a news agency by
the Casa Rosada with Miceli's comments criticizing a recent
speech by Lavagna before Miceli had actually spoken. As
leading pollster Roberto Bacman told Poloff, "Never since the
return to democracy (1983) has Argentina had a President that
was also the Minister of the Economy."
---------------------------------------------
KIRCHNER'S PSYCHOLOGICAL PROFILE SETS K-STYLE
---------------------------------------------
¶7. (C) According to recent studies, Kirchner's psychological
profile includes a need to always be in control, quick and
decisive decision making, and a constant struggle against
perceived enemies. Kirchner does not delegate policymaking,
BUENOS AIR 00001462 003 OF 005
making all of the important decisions himself. Kirchner only
consults with a narrow group of long-time advisors, who are
part of Kirchner's inner circle primarily because of their
loyalty, not their technical abilities (See Reftel D). He
often does not even consult or give warning to top GOA
officials before making major policy statements in their
respective areas of responsibility. According to Central
Bank officials, for example, Central Bank President Martin
Redrado found out that the GOA was going to use nearly 10 USD
billion in Central Bank reserves to pay off the IMF when
Kirchner publicly announced it. Casa Rosada insiders have
described Kirchner as prone to making quick, sometimes even
rash decisions. For example, Kirchner reportedly made a snap
decision to institute a six-month ban on beef exports after
learning that the price of beef had risen a significant
amount the previous day in the country's most important beef
market. Kirchner has lashed out at has perceived enemies,
both domestic and foreign, throughout his presidency.
Kirchner's targets have included the IMF, the U.S., the
media, the Catholic Church, the Argentine military, the
foreign and domestic business community, supermarkets,
foreign gas stations, anything that happened in the 1990s,
former Presidents Carlos Menem, Fernando de la Rua and
Eduardo Duhalde. Kirchner often targets unpopular groups or
individuals as a means to increase his own public approval
ratings.
¶8. (C) When confronted with a problem, Kirchner's first
instinct is to go on the offensive, rather than negotiate,
upping the ante if his initial efforts fail to win the
desired result. When Kirchner faced resistance from the
business and agricultural sector on his efforts to control
inflation earlier in the year, Kirchner instituted a ban on
the export of beef and appointed the unorthodox Peronist
economist Guillermo Moreno to run the GOA's anti-inflation
efforts through bullying and threatening individual producers
to lower their prices. When Uruguayan President Tabare
Vazquez did not respond well to Kirchner's insistence that
Uruguay halt the construction of two paper plants on the
Argentine border to conduct additional environmental studies,
Kirchner's rhetoric encouraged the residents of the affected
province to step up their blockade of the bridges connecting
the two countries, resulting in millions of dollars of lost
trade and tourism income for Uruguay. Faced with rising gas
prices in early 2005, Kirchner called for a national boycott
of Shell Oil and sent thousands of piqueteros to blockade
Shell Oil gas stations until they agreed to lower their
prices.
¶9. (C) Kirchner has a reputation for taking slights or any
perceived lack of respect from others personally, but is also
known for quick changes in temperament. Acevedo told the DCM
that once then-Governor Kirchner became enraged with his
Deputy Energy Minister for making a statement regarding Santa
Cruz energy policy he did not personally approve. Kirchner
called the Deputy Minister into his office and proceeded to
scream at him at the top of his lungs, ultimately effectively
throwing him out of his office physically. Everyone in the
provincial government leadership expected the Deputy Minister
to be fired. Kirchner did not speak to him for two weeks,
until he unexpectedly called him asking for some trout for a
dinner that Kirchner was hosting. Acevedo said this
individual had a reputation for knowing where to get the best
trout in Rio Gallegos. The Deputy Minister complied with the
request, and two days later Kirchner invited him for coffee.
Kirchner greeted him warmly, thanked him for the trout, and
proceeded to chat with him for a long period, as if the
previous incident had never happened, to the shock of
everyone else present, including the Deputy Minister. In the
end, the Deputy Minister was not fired, and Kirchner did not
raise the issue again.
¶10. (C) Kirchner's health condition exacerbates, and perhaps
helps define, Kirchner's emotions and psychology. President
Kirchner has reportedly suffered from irritable bowel
syndrome for many years. According to the American Medical
Association, the psychological effects of this condition
leads those who suffer from it to be "often rigid, methodical
persons who are conscientious, with obsessive-compulsive
BUENOS AIR 00001462 004 OF 005
tendencies." Kirchner also reportedly works himself to
exhaustion and needs to take frequent vacations to recover.
The AMA further states "Psychologic and social stresses are
often present in patients with irritable bowel syndrome, and
may be related in a temporal sense to the exacerbation of
symptoms." This may account for Kirchner's lack of attention
to protocol that involves long ceremonies or tight schedules,
where Kirchner would not have quick access to a bathroom.
-----------------------------------
FOREIGN POLICY NOT KIRCHNER'S FOCUS
-----------------------------------
¶11. (C) Foreign policy in the Kirchner government is always
subservient to domestic political considerations. Kirchner,
at least initially, took a hard line on the paper mills
dispute with Uruguay -- despite the damage to Mercosur and
regional relations -- because of the strong Argentine public
concern about the paper mills, particularly in
ruling-party-run Entre Rios province that is on the opposite
side of the river from the plants. Kirchner's explicit and
harsh criticism of the U.S. during his speech during the
Summit of the Americas in Mar del Plata can only be
understood in the context of dismal public perceptions of the
U.S. and Kirchner's desire to appeal to his leftist political
base (See Reftel E). Kirchner's hardball tactics during
negotiations over Argentina's private sector debt and his
criticism of foreign companies that run major enterprises
that were privatized in the 1990s do not earn him any support
from foreign investors, but are popular with the Argentine
public. Likewise, Kirchner cut Argentine gas exports to
Chile in 2005 to cover shortages in the internal market
despite the existence of valid contracts between Chile and
local gas suppliers.
¶12. (C) President Kirchner is not skilled at international
diplomacy and often ignores basic protocol. Kirchner's
gaffes with foreign dignitaries are legendary. In June 2004,
Kirchner left Russian leader Vladimir Putin waiting at the
Moscow airport for a meeting that never happened, reportedly
because Cristina Kirchner wanted to spend more time shopping
at their previous stop in Prague. The GOA claimed that "bad
weather" had delayed their takeoff when weather reports
showed sunny conditions in Prague. Later that year,
President Kirchner failed to attend a state dinner he was
supposed to host for visiting Vietnamese President Tran Duc
Luong. In like fashion, Kirchner failed to attend a
reception in honor of the State visit of Queen Beatriz of
Holland in March of 2006. Kirchner also never receives new
Ambassadors, as state protocol would dictate, relegating this
responsibility to Vice President Daniel Scioli.
¶13. (C) Kirchner relies on an ever-shrinking group of
long-time advisors to make key decisions, many of whom lack
international, business and economic expertise (See Reftel
D). No one from the Foreign Ministry is part of Kirchner's
inner circle of advisors, and very few of Kirchner's close
associates had overseas experience before Kirchner became
President (See Reftel F). As a result, Kirchner often
receives poor advice on international issues, such as when
Legal and Technical Secretary Carlos Zannini reportedly
convinced Kirchner that taking a tough line publicly on
counter terrorism would, in the eyes of the USG, compensate
for being critical of the U.S. in other areas and opposing
the FTAA at the Summit of the Americas (See Reftel E).
------------------------------------
COMMENT -- IMPLICATIONS FOR THE U.S.
------------------------------------
¶14. (C) Kirchner's peculiar operating and decision-making
style defines Argentine policymaking, and in the coming year,
may lead to more challenges in the U.S.-Argentine
relationship, as Kirchner focuses on shoring up his
center-left political base for the 2007 elections. Given
poll numbers that show Argentines have the least positive
view of the U.S. out of all nations in the region, the U.S.
will be a convenient target for Kirchner. As during the 2003
presidential campaign, Kirchner will likely portray himself
BUENOS AIR 00001462 005 OF 005
as the lone true defender of Argentina in the world
community. The Casa Rosada has reportedly already begun an
effort to link Roberto Lavagna to the U.S., for example by
encouraging press articles that the U.S. approved and is
sponsoring a potential Lavagna campaign for President.
¶15. (C) Kirchner has a history of using international
disputes, like the paper mill conflict with Uruguay, to gain
domestic popular support. We have been told by our British
colleagues that relations between the U.K. and Argentina are
at their lowest point in 15 years because Kirchner has chosen
a confrontational attitude with the U.K. on the Falkland
Islands dispute, thereby making political use of an issue
that is at the core of Argentine national identity. As
leading political analyst Rosendo Fraga told Poloff, "This
year, Kirchner will use the U.K. and Uruguay as targets, and
next year, it will be the U.S." Kirchner has been described
to us by his close associates as someone who constantly
focuses on the costs and benefits of his political decisions.
During a recent trip to Spain, Kirchner criticized the
U.S.'s "absence" and lack of significant assistance to the
region. Former Minister Lavagna told the Ambassador that
Kirchner did this in order to counter the image that he had
been too forthcoming with Spanish multinationals during the
trip. As the 2007 presidential campaign approaches, we
cannot rule out occasional anti-U.S. diatribes by Kirchner in
order to placate his leftist supporters.
GUTIERREZ
REFERENCIA ID 06BUENOSAIRES1594
ASUNTO ARGENTINA: KIRCHNER AT THREE YEARS
CREADO 2006-07-18
LANZADO 2010-11-30
CLASIFICACION Secreto
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DE RUEHBU #1594/01 1992116
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5265
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 BUENOS AIRES 001594
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: KIRCHNER AT THREE YEARS
REF: A. 05 BUENOS AIRES 02728
¶B. 05 BUENOS AIRES 03056
¶C. BUENOS AIRES 00293
¶D. BUENOS AIRES 01403
¶E. BUENOS AIRES 00097
¶F. BUENOS AIRES 01566
Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (C) Coming to power after one of the worst economic,
political and social crises in Argentina's history, President
Nestor Kirchner has had a successful first three years in
office. He is seen as a strong and decisive leader and is
credited with restoring governability to the executive branch
and promoting Argentina's impressive economic recovery.
Kirchner has high public approval ratings and has restored
public optimism in Argentina. Despite these major successes,
Kirchner continues to face considerable challenges in dealing
with poverty, crime, inflation, and the need to attract more
foreign investment and resolve Argentina's long-term energy
shortage. Although Kirchner started his presidency by
strengthening the independence of the Supreme Court, Kirchner
has since then failed to strengthen Argentina's institutional
democracy, and in many cases has weakened it. Kirchner's
reliance on presidential decrees, manipulation of the
electoral system, tightened control over the Judiciary, and
pursuit of permanent "super" budgetary powers have enhanced
presidential power at the expense of Argentina's already weak
institutional framework. Kirchner campaigned in 2003 on a
strong anti-corruption message and his first Justice
Minister, Gustavo Beliz, championed the cause of rooting out
official corruption, but the GOA has placed less emphasis on
fighting corruption since Beliz was fired in 2004. On the
foreign policy front, President Kirchner's lack of attention
and understanding in the international relations arena has
resulted in an erratic GOA foreign policy. The Kirchner
administration's most important foreign policy theme is the
promotion of regional integration, which in practice has
meant the strengthening of relations with Venezuela and
Brazil. End Summary.
-------------------------
KIRCHNER'S MANY SUCCESSES
-------------------------
¶2. (C) Coming to power after one of the worst economic,
political and social crises in Argentina's history, President
Nestor Kirchner has had a successful first three years in
office. When Kirchner first took office in May 2003, many
analysts doubted he would finish his term. Since that time,
Kirchner has gained full control of the Peronis Party (PJ),
asserted his authority over the military, largely co-opted
the piquetero movement that threatened the stability of past
governments, won control of Congress in the October 2005
elections and maintained high public approval ratings. Not
only is Kirchner's survival no longer in doubt, polls show
that Kirchner would easily win reelection if elections were
held today. Kirchner controls Argentina's political system
and faces a weak and divided opposition. Kirchner has also
proven adept at the traditional Peronist art of co-opting key
elements of the opposition, including a majority of the
opposition governors.
¶3. (C) He is seen as a strong and decisive leader and is
credited with restoring governability to the executive branch
and promoting Argentina's impressive economic recovery.
Polls show that the Argentine public views Kirchner as a
decisive leader who was able to take charge and turn the
country around during a difficult time in Argentine history.
The wave of public demonstrations that stemmed from the
2001-2002 economic crisis that brought presidential authority
in Argentina to one of its lowest ebbs has subsided and
Kirchner has adeptly managed relations with protest leaders.
On the economic front, Argentina has strongly rebounded from
the crisis, with GDP growth rates of 9 percent for the past
BUENOS AIR 00001594 002 OF 005
three years. Through the GOA's private sector debt deal and
by paying off Argentina's IMF debt, Argentina's external debt
has been brought to a manageable level for the first time in
a decade. Under Kirchner's watch, Argentina has amassed
record budget surpluses. The tax collection system -- a
perennial problem for Argentine governments -- has been
significantly improved, albeit aided by the use of
distortionary taxes like the financial transaction tax and
the export tax. Argentina's move to a market-based exchange
rate regime in 2002 has triggered an export-led boom during
Kirchner's presidency that has been the driving factor behind
robust growth, accompanied by significant declines in
unemployment and poverty levels.
¶4. (C) Kirchner has high public approval ratings and has
restored public optimism in Argentina. Kirchner's approval
ratings stand at 65-75 percentage points -- depending on the
poll and how the question is asked -- a historical high for
an Argentine president three years into his term. Polls by
leading Argentine pollsters show that Kirchner receives high
marks for his handling of the economy and for promoting
political stability. Argentines also have developed a
renewed sense of optimism under Kirchner's administration.
In recent polling by a leading opinion research firm, a
plurality of respondents -- 44 percent -- thought that
conditions in Argentina would improve over the coming year,
while only 12 percent thought things would get worse. In
March 2003, the month Kirchner was elected, polling by the
same firm showed that only 29 percent of the population
thought things would get better in the coming year, while 30
percent thought things would get worse.
-----------------
CHALLENGES REMAIN
-----------------
¶5. (C) Despite these major successes, Kirchner continues to
face considerable challenges in dealing with persistent
poverty and high crime. Poverty rates have been nearly
halved from almost 60 percent of the population at the height
of the economic crisis to 34 percent today. At the same
time, however, reducing poverty in this traditionally
affluent country continues to be a major social policy
imperative for the Kirchner administration. The continued
problem of inflation -- which stood at 12.3 percent in 2005
and is on track to maintain a double digit rate in 2006 -- is
also of a top GOA concern. The GOA has resorted to price
controls, bullying producers to lower prices, and even banned
the export of beef as a means to control inflation. (See
Septel on evaluating Kirchner's economic policy.) Crime
continues to be a major public focus according to opinion
surveys. Argentines accustomed to minimal crime rates,
particularly in the Greater Buenos Aires area, have since the
economic crisis faced a major problem with street crime, home
invasions, kidnappings and other types of violent crime. The
Capital has had several recent cases of shootings, robberies
and rapes that have garnered a lot of media attention, giving
the public the sensation of a surge in crime. Interior
Minister Anibal Fernandez recently stated that GOA statistics
in fact show that crime is down, but this assertion is
impossible to verify because the GOA has not published
national crime statistics since 2004.
¶6. (C) On the economic front, sustained growth requires
increasing infusions of foreign investment, dealing with the
energy shortage and controlling inflation. Private Direct
Foreign Investment has increased significantly since the
crisis, particularly in the tradable goods and services
industries. Nevertheless, other sectors (e.g. public
services) are badly in need of investment in order to sustain
continued growth. A strategic flaw in the economic equation
continues to be the energy sector. The Kirchner
administration has faced serious pressure from utility
companies and the G-7 to raise utility rates that have been
pesified and then frozen for residential users since the peso
devalued in 2002. So far, the GOA has been unwilling to
raise utility rates for residential users, but Kirchner
recently said he is open to discussions on the issue,
although he made no promises. Without a utility rate
BUENOS AIR 00001594 003 OF 005
increase, it is doubtful that Argentina will see major new
foreign investments in public utilities in the short-term.
Argentina's gas and electricity production has not kept up
with the rapid growth of demand due to the absence of market
incentives (price) to invest or expand production. (Comment:
Kirchner's unorthodox methods of controlling inflation,
frozen utility rates and hardball tactics with the private
sector may earn Kirchner short-term benefits, but they are
not long-term solutions to Argentina's economic problems
because they scare away foreign investment that Argentina
needs to sustain its economic growth. End Comment.)
--------------------------------------------- -------
KIRCHNER WEAK ON SUPPORT FOR INSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY
--------------------------------------------- -------
¶7. (C) Although Kirchner began his presidency by
strengthening the independence of the Supreme Court, his
record since then on institutional-democracy building has
been poor. Upon assuming office, Kirchner moved quickly to
clean up former President Carlos Menem's "automatic majority"
Supreme Court that was widely regarded as corrupt. Kirchner
and his supporters in Congress forced three Menem-era Supreme
Court justices to resign and impeached two others. Kirchner
then appointed four well-respected jurists to succeed them.
However, since that time Kirchner has failed to fill the
remaining vacancies on the high court -- a second vacancy
opened up after another justice retired -- reducing the
effectiveness of the court. (Note: Rulings still require the
support of five justices, which is more difficult to achieve
with only seven instead of nine on the bench. End Note.) A
proposal by legal experts to reduce the number of Supreme
Court justices from nine to five, as it was before Menem's
1990 controversial judicial reform, has not been pursued by
the Kirchner administration.
¶8. (C) Over the past year, Kirchner has instigated a number
of actions that have further debilitated Argentina's already
weak democratic institutions. Kirchner has issued hundreds
of presidential decrees during his presidency, preferring to
avoid discussion or delay in Congress, and signed more
decrees in his third year of his presidency than laws
approved by Congress. A new law sponsored by his wife,
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, nominally is designed to
regulate the presidential-decree-making process. The bill,
which will likely be signed into law shortly, would authorize
presidential decrees that are not voted down by both houses
of Congress. The proposed bill does not set a time limit on
when Congress is required to vote after a presidential decree
is issued and allows decrees to remain in force pending a
congressional vote. (Note: Senator Cristina Kirchner
proposed a bill in 2000 designed to regulate presidential
decrees when Fernando de la Rua of the Radical Civic Union
(UCR) was President. Unlike her current bill, the 2000
Cristina Kirchner bill required Congress to vote on
presidential decrees within 20 days of their issuance and
made the decrees invalid if just one house of Congress voted
against them. Senator Kirchner's bill was not approved in
2000, but UCR Senator Rodolfo Terragno reintroduced
Kirchner's exact bill in the Senate earlier this year, to
which Senator Kirchner responded with the current modified
version of the bill. End Note.) (Comment: Congress'
regulation of presidential decrees is a long-overdue action
that was supposed to be addressed shortly following the 1994
constitutional reform. The current bill will serve to
legitimate what has become an arbitrary use of presidential
powers. Kirchner is not the first president to abuse the use
of presidential decrees, but he has taken their use to new
levels. End Comment.)
¶9. (C) Kirchner and his supporters' manipulation of the
electoral system before and after the October 2005
legislative elections gained them more power in Congress, but
sometimes ran counter to voters' wishes and the spirit of the
Constitution and electoral law. In the October elections,
the ruling PJ party split in five of the eight provinces that
were electing national senators, allowing them to gain all
three Senate seats in the five provinces. (Note: By dividing
in several provinces, and in most cases reuniting after the
BUENOS AIR 00001594 004 OF 005
election, the PJ circumvented a constitutional provision
reserving a portion of the Senate seats to miniority parties.
Electoral law further stipulates that those parties that
cannot agree on a unified electoral list hold primary
elections to choose candidates, which the PJ did not do in
most provinces. See Reftel A. End Note.) Kirchner's allies
in Congress also prevented right-wing Paufe leader Luis Patti
from taking his seat in Congress due to as yet unproven
allegations of human rights abuses when Patti was a police
commissioner during the last military dictatorship. Patti
was prevented from taking his seat despite a ruling by the
National Electoral Committee prior to the election that there
was nothing preventing Patti from assuming office and despite
the nearly 400,000 people that voted for him in Buenos Aires
province (See Reftel B).
¶10. (C) Kirchner and his allies have used other questionable
tactics that contradicted voters' intentions and have
supporting provincial allies in overturning term limits.
Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez drew newly-elected
congressman for the opposition Republican Proposal (PRO)
Eduardo Lorenzo Borocoto over to Kirchner's bloc by offering
his son a lucrative government job. Several Kirchner
congressmen elected in October never assumed their seats,
such as Jorge Taiana, who became Foreign Minister, and La
Rioja Governor Angel Maza, who left his newly-won Senate seat
to his sister, Ada Maza. Tucuman Governor Jose Alperovich,
with Kirchner's blessing, recently changed his province's
constitution to allow himself to run for reelection.
Kirchner is supporting similar efforts by friendly Governors
in Jujuy and Misiones, and Buenos Aires Governor Felipe Sola
is in discussions with Kirchner to allow him to change the
Buenos Aires Constitution or ensure a favorable legal ruling
so he also can run for reelection next year.
¶11. (C) Kirchner has achieved an unprecedented
centralization of decision-making, but has weakened
Argentina's system of checks and balances in the process. In
February 2006, Kirchner and his allies in Congress succeeded
in modifying the Council of Magistrates that regulates the
Argentine judicial system, strengthening the Casa Rosada's
control over the judiciary (See Reftel C). Congress is also
likely to shortly approve granting Cabinet Chief Alberto
Fernandez permanent "super" budgetary powers that will enable
him to freely move funds from one area of the budget to
another without approval from Congress. The opposition in
Congress claim the proposed law will strip Congress of its
fundamental democratic role of controlling the budget and
that these powers are no longer necessary because the
economic crisis is over. The opposition further argues that
the measure is simply designed to allow the GOA to spend
money however it wants during an election year, pointing out
that Alberto Fernandez reassigned ARP 500 million to social
and public works projects just two weeks before the October
2005 legislative elections using these same powers. The
Kirchners have lashed out repeatedly at the press and the
opposition for their criticism of the Casa Rosada's recent
actions in Congress. The GOA claims these are necessary
powers to ensure the smooth functioning of the government.
Regardless of the opposition's objections, the Casa Rosada
appears to have the necessary votes to approve the measure by
early August. (Note: These "super" budgetary powers were
first granted by Congress to the GOA at the start of the
economic crisis in 2001 and were re-approved every year
through the 2005 budget. They were not included in the 2006
budget -- passed before the October elections gave Kirchner
control of Congress -- because of opposition resistance. The
current bill would make these special budgetary powers
permanent. End Note.)
¶12. (S) Kirchner campaigned in 2003 on a strong
anti-corruption message and his first Justice Minister,
Gustavo Beliz, came with impeccable credentials and
championed the cause of rooting out official corruption.
Unfortunately, the GOA has placed less emphasis on fighting
corruption since then. In fact, since Beliz was fired in
2004, Kirchner has avoiding speaking publicly about official
corruption and the much-vaunted new Office of Anti-Corruption
has failed to live up to its envisioned potential. There
BUENOS AIR 00001594 005 OF 005
also have been credible allegations that Planning Minister
Julio De Vido, a key Kirchner insider, has been involved in
questionable federal and provincial public works contracts
during Kirchner's presidency (See Reftel D).
--------------------------------------------
KIRCHNER FOREIGN POLICY SUFFERS FROM NEGLECT
--------------------------------------------
¶13. (C) President Kirchner's lack of attention and
understanding in the international relations arena has
resulted in an erratic GOA foreign policy. President
Kirchner is not skilled at international diplomacy and relies
on an ever-shrinking group of long-time advisors who lack
foreign policy expertise to make key decisions. Kirchner has
touted Mercosur as a regional alternative to the FTAA, but
his conflict with Uruguay over the construction of two paper
plants has caused a crisis within the trading bloc.
President Kirchner has recently sought closer relations with
Spain, even as he is putting more pressure on Spanish
companies with major investments in Argentina, such as Repsol
and Aerolineas Argentinas. Kirchner has repeatedly thanked
the U.S. for its support to Argentina during the crisis and
sought to strengthen the bilateral relationship after
short-circuits during the Summit of the Americas, but took
the opportunity during a recent press conference in Madrid to
criticize the U.S. and claim that the U.S. left Argentina to
face the crisis alone (See Reftel E).
¶14. (C) The Kirchner administration's most important foreign
policy theme is the promotion of regional integration, which
in practice has meant the strengthening of relations with
Venezuela and Brazil. Argentina's most important goal during
its recent presidency of Mercosur was the integration of
Venezuela into the trading bloc (See Reftel F). Kirchner's
top officials have repeatedly told Embassy officials that the
GOA's relationship with Venezuela is based on economics and
Mercosur. Kirchner sees Venezuela as a solution for
Argentina's energy and financing problems. Kirchner, who
normally places a low priority on foreign relations, in the
past 12 months has traveled twice to Caracas and hosted
Chavez three times in Argentina. Kirchner will host Chavez
again for the July 20-21 Mercosur Summit in Cordoba,
Argentina. Kirchner has also sought to strengthen relations
with Brazil, recently endorsing Brazilian President Lula's
reelection and signing an accord on automobile sales between
the two countries.
¶15. (C) To his credit, Kirchner has remained committed to
OAS efforts to return Haiti to stability and constitutional
democracy. Senior GOA officials assure us that Argentine
peacekeepers will remain on the island for the long-term.
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COMMENT
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¶16. (C) President Kirchner has numerous successes to show
after three years in office. The economy is booming and
Argentines feel a level of stability and dignity has been
restored to their country which was lost in the political,
economic and social disaster of 2001-2002. In Kirchner's
first years in office, Argentina needed a strong hand to lead
it out of the depths of crisis. History has shown that
long-term, broad-based economic growth needs to be
accompanied by a strong institutional framework. Now that
the crisis has past, the country needs a leader that is
willing to spend some of his built-up capital to strengthen
Argentina's weak democratic institutions. To date, it is
unclear whether Kirchner has the will or capacity to make
this transition. End Comment
GUTIERREZ
REFERENCIA ID 07BUENOSAIRES376
ASUNTO C) U.S.- ARGENTINE RELATIONS: DR. JEKYL AND MR.
CREADO 2007-02-27
LANZADO 2010-11-30
CLASIFICACION Confidencial
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000376
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
WHA FOR A/S SHANNON, DAS DUDDY, AND WHA/BSC
P FOR HEIDE BRONKE
NSC FOR JUAN ZARATE AND JOSE CARDENAS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON VZ AR
SUBJECT: (C) U.S.- ARGENTINE RELATIONS: DR. JEKYL AND MR.
KIRCHNER
REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 360
¶B. BUENOS AIRES 311
¶C. BUENOS AIRES 305
¶D. BUENOS AIRES 302
¶E. BUENOS AIRES 301
Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for reasons 1.4
(b)and(d)
¶1. (C) Summary and Comment: Argentina's President Nestor
Kirchner is trying to stake out a position for himself close
to Chavez yet still working well with the U.S. on issues
important to Argentina. With domestic political advantage
and 2007 elections in mind, we expect Kirchner to continue
the balancing act. Kirchner will lash out with largely
indirect criticism, he will cozy up to Chavez, and yet he
will maintain a number of open doors to us. Kirchner
recognizes the value of maintaining quiet, positive relations
with the U.S. -- particularly on key strategic issues, e.g.
non-proliferation and counterterrorism -- but sees no value
domestically in aligning himself publicly with the U.S. or
its policies. In fact, he gets a domestic boost from lashing
out at perceived pressure and in striking an independent
pose, a la Charles de Gaulle. Argentina's commercial and
economic relationship with Venezuela is also of strategic
importance (refs. a, b), the difference being that,
domestically, Kirchner does perceive value, in particular
electorally, in publicly linking himself to Chavez; he is
bringing home the bacon. The meetings between senior GoA
ministers and AG Gonzalez and U/S Burns and A/S Shannon were
uniformly positive, recognizing an important common agenda in
many areas (refs c-d and septels), and the press play from
the visits was positive and profuse. In light of this
dynamic, Kirchner's statements in Venezuela -- that Argentina
will "not contain Venezuela" and his invitation for Chavez to
visit in March are indicative of the GoA's desire to maintain
what they see as a "balance" in relations with the U.S. and
Venezuela. End Summary.
¶2. (C) Attorney General Gonzales' February 6-7 visit, and U/S
Nick Burns and A/S Shannon's February 8-9 visit to Buenos
Aires and meetings with senior Kirchner ministers served to
underscore improving bilateral relations, the breadth of that
relationship, as well as highlight U.S. policy priorities in
the region. Kirchner insiders, Cabinet Chief Alberto
Fernandez and Planning Minister Julio De Vido, confirmed to
Burns and Shannon the importance of the relationship to the
GoA, the strong working-level cooperation on
counterterrorism, counternarcotics, and international support
for non-proliferation. Together with Foreign Minister
Taiana, they shared concerns about the situation in Bolivia
and Ecuador, and the need for strengthening stability in the
region, including through joint efforts in Haiti. They also
emphasized the importance they place on attracting U.S.
investment (although a negative decision made public during
the visit regarding a U.S. investment fund seeking a share of
a local energy transmitting company, indicates that the
actual message to potential investors, at best, is mixed).
Cabinet Chief Fernandez publicly characterized relations as
"good" the day after Burns' visit.
¶3. (C) The Kirchner style from the beginning, however, has
been combative in the face of real, imagined and fabricated
challenges from sources as varied as the Catholic church,
neoliberalism and the "Washington consensus," the World Bank
and IMF, parasitic foreign multi-nationals, the press and
political opponents (whether from within or from outside the
Peronist party) and -- indirectly stated -- the the U.S.
This style has stood him in good stead. As the economy
boomed, buoyed by favorable external factors, his popularity
ratings have soared, and have remained high, due in no small
part to his pugnacious character.
¶4. (SBU) Kirchner demonstrated again over the last two weeks
his willingness to attack external institutions for domestic
political gain. He lashed out on several occasions at the
IFIs and other international organizations, rejecting their
latest gentle criticisms of GoA economic policies and blaming
them again for the 2001/2002 financial crisis and also for
current high poverty levels. His outburst followed mildly
critical comments from the World Bank and World Trade
Organization officials about the sustainability of the GoA's
economic policies. He was also responding to an IMF
spokesman's comment to the press that an IMF agreement was
normally a prerequisite for Paris Club debt rescheduling.
Despite the IMF's explanation that this was a Paris Club, not
IMF, requirement, Kirchner blamed the IMF -- his favorite
whipping boy -- for blocking a Paris Club deal. He and his
Economic Minister, Felisa Miceli, also used the opportunity
to pander to the public's extreme hostility towards the IMF
by rejecting categorically any possibility of a Fund program
with Argentina.
¶5. (C) This dynamic helps explain the two faces of Kirchner
we see in our bilateral relations. Kirchner is essentially
pragmatic but excessively focused on domestic issues and
public opinion. The low point in recent bilateral relations,
occasioned by the GoA performance at the Mar del Plata Summit
of the Americas in November 2005, perhaps convinced Kirchner
he had gone a bit too far down the populist route. Since
then, we have seen a gradual and steady improvement in
relations with an increasing willingness by senior-level
officials in engaging in dialogue with us and in identifying
areas where we can strengthen cooperation.
¶6. (C) However, we do not expect to see a public embrace of
the U.S. or many of our policies. The public image of the
U.S. in Argentina is the lowest in the region. Kirchner's
regular verbal assaults on policies and institutions linked
in the public mind to the U.S., e.g. globalization and the
international financial institutions, resonate very well here
as long as they don't foretell a serious break (see latest
INR U.S Image paper from the Oct-Nov 2006 Latinobarometro
poll comparing Argentina with 17 other regional publics).
Kirchner calculates -- with at least one eye always on the
next election -- that there is little up-side to being linked
too closely with the U.S., and little down-side to
occasionally "standing firm" and "protecting the people's
interests" before the hegemonic power.
¶7. (C) The press here eggs this on, couching many issues as
the ideological struggle between the U.S. and Venezuela for
predominance in the region. As a reflection of this, GoA
actions are either portrayed as pro-Chavez or as a
rapprochement with the U.S. Contacts inform us that Kirchner
also sees himself as maintaining this balance between the two
-- a la Charles de Gualle between the cold war powers U.S.
and USSR. The Embassy has seen on several occasions, when
the press appears to be too caught up in portraying the
improving U.S.- GoA relations, that Kirchner will find an
opportunity to publicly stick a pin in that balloon. In the
aftermath of the Gonzalez/Burns/Shannon visits, Kirchner,
while in Venezuela recently to sign a number of commercial
agreements, may have felt compelled to "right the balance"
and demonstrate his independence with his gratuitous remark
that Argentina would not "contain" Chavez (ref. A). The
media here has, in fact, tied Kirchner's comments in
Venezuela to Burns/Shannon remarks made here during their
recent visit that the U.S. could work well with governments
like Argentina and Brazil but that Venezuela was "another
matter."
¶8. (C) Comment: It is clear we have foreign policy
differences with the Kirchner administration, particularly
over how we view Chavez and his actions in Venezuela and the
region. Press reports here say Chavez will be paying a
return visit to Kirchner next week, coinciding with President
Bush's visit to Uruguay (septel - Senior GoA contacts tell us
the visit is still unconfirmed). Ambassador has expressed
our strong concerns that Chavez will use the occasion to
organize another anti-U.S. rally (as is being reported in the
press), and that such an act would negatively impact our
bilateral relations. This, unfortunately, would be the type
of gesture to be expected of Kirchner; one focused on
short-term electoral political gain, with little thought for
longer-term consequences. We should not expect significant
changes in the GOA's foreign policy or GOA public statements
in support of the U.S. Nor is Kirchner likely to change many
of his interventionist economic tendencies. All of this is
especially true in an election year. But on most of the key
bilateral and multilateral issues important to the U.S., in
fact, we believe we can continue to build strong cooperation
in a quiet, deliberate way.
WAYNE